BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX)


"BioCryst Pharmaceuticals designs, optimizes and develops novel small-molecule pharmaceuticals that block key enzymes involved in infectious diseases, cancer and inflammatory diseases. BioCryst has progressed two novel compounds into late-stage pivotal clinical trials; peramivir, an anti-viral for influenza, and forodesine, a purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP) inhibitor for cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL). Utilizing crystallography and structure-based drug design, BioCryst continues to discover additional compounds and to progress others through pre-clinical and early development to address the unmet medical needs of patients and physicians. The Company's strategic alliances with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Green Cross Corporation and Mundipharma International Holdings Limited validate its scientific foundation and the utility of its product candidates." (company website)

BCRX 4-month chart
BCRX 1-year chart


The big story for BioCryst is the sharp climb since making a second bottom in March. It went from just over $1 in March to just shy of $13 in late August. Since then it pulled way back but is making its way up again toward the 50-day moving average and a chart resistance line. Momentum has picked up in October, reflected in the PPO line and higher-volume up-days than down-days.

  • Percentage price oscillator (PPO) — crossed above the signal line and widening the divergence
  • Volume — higher for the last two months

Based on technical analysis, MarketEdge calls BCRX an "avoid" but notes that it is "moving against opinion" and the chart indicates a "possible trend reversal." We'll find out.


gain Bottom line

Deciding that the glass was half-empty, I decided to bail from BCRX this morning and take modest profits. Looking at the chart, one could see a stock poised to break out of its downtrend: the PPO was diverging above the signal line; prices were testing the 50-day moving average — half-full. On the other hand, volumes have been tapering off since the September peak, and the recent rally has not been accompanied by volume; it's at the upper Bollinger band, and fromm there the price usually retreats to the other band — half-empty.

Market Edge is still advising people to hold short. Half-empty says they may be right.