TiVo (TIVO)

Company

tivo(2-1)_1yr
TIVO 1-year chart

"Founded in 1997, TiVo, a pioneer in home entertainment, created a brand-new product and service category with the development of the world's first digital video recorder (DVR). Today, the company continues to revolutionize the way consumers watch and access home entertainment, by making the TiVo DVR the focal point of the digital living room: a center for sharing and experiencing television, movies, video downloads, music, photos, and more." (company website)

tivo(2-1)
TIVO 6-month chart

Buy

TiVo has been climbing steadily in a channel for almost two months, but has just broken above it on heavy volume. The 50-day moving average has also turned up in the last two weeks, and the 200-day moving average has flattened out after a decline.

  • Percentage price oscillator (PPO) — the long-term trend is upward, and the PPO has just crossed back above the signal line, making a decisive turn
  • Volume — got a big boost in volume after the March earnings, and the latest price move is also on heavier than normal volume

Based on technical analysis, MarketEdge calls TIVO a "buy" in a "weak upward trend," noting that it is "overbought."

I usually avoid buying in on a stock that is overbought, but I've also found that if the stock starts to move sharply, I soon get priced out. So, with TiVo I'm plunging in, despite the overbought condition. Earnings are three weeks off, so there may be time to pocket some earnings nevertheless.

Sell

gain Bottom line
-8%

I bought into TiVo when it broke above the narrow upward channel, but that must have jinxed it — since then it has been plunging. My stop-loss order triggered when the price dropped by 8%.