Trader Paul

Switchboard (SWBD)

Company. "Switchboard Incorporated is the leading provider of Web-hosted directory technologies and customized yellow pages platforms to yellow pages publishers, newspaper publishers and Internet portals that offer online local directory advertising solutions to national retailers and brick and mortar merchants across a full range of Internet and wireless platforms." (company website)

SWBD stock chart
gain Bottom line
38%

Buy. You could say that I either bought too late or too soon. Too late in that a much better entry point would have been three days earlier on 28-July when SWBD began to rise again, following the peak on 21-July and subsequent correction. Too soon in that a better entry point would have been several days later on 11-Aug when SWBD began to rise again, following the peak on 30-July and subsequent correction.

If I had gotten in on 28-July at $5.50, my return would have been 64%; if I had gotten in on 11-Aug at $6, my return would have been 50%. Who says trying to time the market isn't a good idea?

Sell. It will probably turn out that I sold too soon: Daily volumes are larger than normal. The ADX line and +DI lines are still rising. The Chaikin oscillator is still rising. The indications are for continuation of the trend.

bird in hand

On the other hand, SWBD stock has risen over a dollar (15%) in just two days, and the stock is up more than 400% in just six months since the low in February at $2.14.

And, the market in general is getting squirrely, despite good economic numbers coming in; the Nasdaq is down again today for the third day in a row. In other words, this is classic "bird in the hand" thinking.

Although I haven't gone back and done the analysis to see if it's really true, I sense that I do much better when I get out on the way up, rather than try to judge if the top has been reached. Maybe some people know how to read the tea leaves, but I surely do not. It's easier to know when the profits are some nice round number, like $1000, $2000, etc.